Besides the strategic narratives of Kremlin that are aimed for global use, three trends were also noticed: (1) The Balkans, through different prisms, has been regularly present in the statements of Russian officials and (2) Russian narratives were adapted to the local context and (3) The concept of neutrality, mostly promoted by Serbia, was misused to express support to Russia.
This report analyses the major disinformation narratives present in the online space in North Macedonia in the period April-June 2022.
A total of 643 articles or social media posts were analysed. The articles were published by 108 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 1.572 posts on 305 Facebook pages/groups, reaching 14.249.273 followers and triggering a total of 178.833 interactions on Facebook.
The narratives were grouped under five general topics: (1) Events related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2) Russian justification of the aggression, (3) Threats by Russia, (4) Anti-Western narratives, and (5) Glorification of Russia.
As it can be seen from the chart, the unprovoked war of Russia with Ukraine and its justification by Russia was the issue that attracted the most attention within this period. The Events related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine had the highest number of websites, Facebook pages/groups and number of followers, while Russian justification of the aggression had the highest number of articles, posts and interactions.
The narratives form a comprehensive whole which may be elaborated thus: through its activities, the West forced Russia to attack Ukraine. The presence of Nazism in Ukraine is also one of the worrying concerns of Russia, which fought and was victorious over Nazism in WWII and is ready to do it again. NATO and the West represent a threat to Russia, therefore superior Russia must, and will manage to defend itself. Moreover, Russia claims Crimea and Donbas as its own territory, as a part of its strategic goal to resurrect tsarist Russia or the former USSR.
Besides the strategic narratives of Kremlin that are aimed for global use, three trends were also noticed: (1) The Balkans, through different prisms, has been regularly present in the statements of Russian officials and (2) Russian narratives were adapted to the local context and (3) The concept of neutrality, mostly promoted by Serbia, was misused to express support to Russia.
Events related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
A total of 163 articles or social media posts were analysed. The articles were published by 74 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 377 posts on 214 Facebook pages/groups, reaching 11.429.334 followers and triggering a total of 29.548 interactions on Facebook.
The narrative about neutrality has been present since the beginning of the war and it was mostly promoted by Serbia. During the monitoring period, it was present through articles that claimed military aid to Ukraine will worsen North Macedonia’s relations with Russia, as well as through the promotion of the narrative Serbia should be neutral. Both of them are a part of Levica’s efforts to promote the concept of neutrality in North Macedonia, which in the case of Balkans represents one of the strategic interests of Russia.
The narrative Battle for Mariupol was one of the most constant narratives since it has been present almost throughout the entire monitoring period. It is the narrative with the highest number of interactions within this section. This narrative included half-truths about the presence of foreigners in Mariupol, i.e. that the Russians allegedly killed a dozen foreign “instructors” from the U.S. and Great Britain as a part of the “Nazi battalion Azov”. The narrative was also brought in relation to the local context, claiming that it was similar to the events that happened in Arachinovo during the 2001 ethnic conflict in North Macedonia.
The reactions on the denied flight of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov to Serbia had the widest reach. In regards to the event, Vice-President of the Federation Council of Russia Kosachev and Lavrov gave similar statements. Kosachev claimed that by entering NATO, Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia have lost their sovereignty and that this “direct intervention” of NATO in the bilateral relations between Russia and Serbia was an attempt to conquer and subdue the rest of Europe. Lavrov claimed that NATO needed Montenegro and North Macedonia as members in order for them to serve as NATO bases for conducting an anti-Russian policy. Serbian President Vučić blamed the West that it requested several times from Serbia to deny hospitality to the Russian MFA and stated that because the West cannot do anything to Russia, it harasses Serbia. This represents subtle support and aggrandizes Russia and its alleged military superiority on one hand, while portraying Serbia as a victim of the West on the other.
Within the other narratives, The Bucha massacre was staged contained several statements by Lavrov and the Russian MFA spokeswoman Zakharova, but also by Belarus President Lukashenko, attempting to deny that the massacre has happened, despite the fact that it was verified by independent sources and credible media outlets.
The narrative about neutrality has been present since the beginning of the war and it was mostly promoted by Serbia. During the monitoring period, it was present through articles that claimed military aid to Ukraine will worsen North Macedonia’s relations with Russia, as well as through the promotion of the narrative Serbia should be neutral. Both of them are a part of Levica’s efforts to promote the concept of neutrality in North Macedonia, which in the case of Balkans represents one of the strategic interests of Russia.
Russian justification of the aggression
A total of 196 articles or social media posts were analysed. The articles were published by 57 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 505 posts on 184 Facebook pages/groups, reaching 14.249.273 followers and triggering a total of 178.833 interactions on Facebook.
The cases of the Yugoslav wars and Kosovo were also used to justify the aggression. In the case of Yugoslavia, the West was blamed for double standards, while in the case of Kosovo, it was accused for being involved in alleged human organ trafficking, smuggling weapons and using depleted uranium in the 1990s. This is a recycled narrative that is frequently employed by Russian MFA spokeswoman Zakharova and incites division in the ethnically heterogeneous Balkans. In another case, Russian President Putin equated the case of the independence of Kosovo with the proclamation of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Within this section, the narrative Lithuania is escalating the war was the strongest, both in terms of reach and interactions. Even though the sanctions against Russia were introduced as early as March, the fact that they also pertained to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad was the excuse for various unjustified threats sent by Russian officials, and at the same time blaming the West.
After it was exploited before and in the beginning of the aggression, the narrative Nazism in Ukraine was intensified during May, in order to establish a link and resonate with the celebration of 9 May – the Victory Day, carrying the message that Russia fought and beat fascism/Nazism in WWII, and now it has to fight it once again. Within this narrative, there were claims that the U.S. were training Ukrainians in a former Nazi military base of the Wehrmacht; that the POWs from Azov have tattoos with Nazi symbols, as well as of Ukrainian collaborators with the fascists in WWII; and that Russian hackers allegedly identified neo-Nazis in Ukraine.
Other narratives that attempted to justify the war were The West is against Russia and Orthodox Christianity, NATO and the U.S. are engaged in biological warfare activities on the territory of Ukraine, culminating with the narrative The West forced Russia to attack Ukraine.
The cases of the Yugoslav wars and Kosovo were also used to justify the aggression. In the case of Yugoslavia, the West was blamed for double standards, while in the case of Kosovo, it was accused for being involved in alleged human organ trafficking, smuggling weapons and using depleted uranium in the 1990s. This is a recycled narrative that is frequently employed by Russian MFA spokeswoman Zakharova and incites division in the ethnically heterogeneous Balkans. In another case, Russian President Putin equated the case of the independence of Kosovo with the proclamation of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Threats by Russia
Within this narrative, a total of 143 articles or social media posts were analysed. The articles were published by 59 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 314 posts on 139 Facebook pages/groups, reaching 7.047.245 followers on Facebook and triggering a total of 43.882 interactions.
Besides to North Macedonia, threats were also issued by various Russian officials to other countries as well. Comparing the campaign of Peter the Great with the current situation, Russian President Putin threatened that they will bring back everything that was Russian. This represents a promotion of the imperialism of (tsarist) Russia and a direct threat to the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic. In other cases, threats were also delivered to Poland, the UK, together with threats of a potential nuclear conflict that will obliterate the entire world.
The speech of the Russian Ambassador given on the occasion of the celebration of the Day of the Russian Federation (9 June) had the highest number of interactions by far. Among the messages (narratives) of friendly relations between Macedonians and Russians, emphasizing the common Slavic and Orthodox origin, Ambassador Bazdnikin also said that they take note of each hostile activity against Russia in the country. This represents a clear threat to North Macedonia and its people for their attitudes towards the unjustified war against Ukraine – a continuation of the pattern that has been used by the Embassy since the beginning of the aggression over Ukraine, in which they openly address the Macedonian public in a threatening tone.
Besides to North Macedonia, threats were also issued by various Russian officials to other countries as well. Comparing the campaign of Peter the Great with the current situation, Russian President Putin threatened that they will bring back everything that was Russian. This represents a promotion of the imperialism of (tsarist) Russia and a direct threat to the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic. In other cases, threats were also delivered to Poland, the UK, together with threats of a potential nuclear conflict that will obliterate the entire world.
Anti-Western narratives
Within this narrative, a total of 51 articles or social media posts were analysed. The articles were published by 40 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 139 posts on 113 Facebook pages/groups, reaching to 5.990.040 followers on Facebook and triggering a total of 12.662 interactions.
The strongest narrative within this section is Serbs don’t demand anything from the Macedonians – only to be friends and brothers employed by Serbian President Vučić, who criticized the West that had demands from North Macedonia, while on the contrary, Serbs were the only ones that did not demand anything from North Macedonia and they only wanted to be friends and brothers to the Macedonians. When observing this narrative through the current social context, it implies that all the neighbours and the EU are against North Macedonia, while Serbia is its only ally.
The other narrative was promoted through the statement of Croatian President Milanović that Croatia should block the entry of Finland in NATO, until the election law in Bosnia and Herzegovina is amended, implying that the latter should be in the EU, while Serbia and Turkey should not.
Glorification of Russia
Within this narrative, a total of 91 articles or social media were analysed. The articles were published by 42 websites and on Facebook, shared and amplified through 237 posts on 113 Facebook pages/groups, reaching to 6.609.819 followers on Facebook and triggering a total of 30.478 interactions.
The articles within this narrative may be classified in three groups: (1) articles that refer to the military superiority, (2) articles that glorify Russian superiority in general and (3) articles that promote illiberal democracy and authoritarianism.
Within the first group, there were articles about various weapons that Russia allegedly successfully tested and that will be employed in the war.
The second group of articles pertained to the superiority of Russia in general, claiming that the sanctions hurt the West more than Russia, that NATO is not able to stop Russia, culminating with the claims that Russia is indestructible.
The third group of articles glorified illiberal democracy and authoritarianism. Here, there were articles about the statement given by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that aggrandized authoritarian style of ruling. In another case, after Serbian President Vučić gave a statement ahead of the EU-Western Balkans Summit that the times when somebody could blackmail and pressure free and independent countries were gone, Macedonian websites were quick to compare him with Putin. Within this narrative, Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov was also heavily present, primarily through his statements regarding the events in Mariupol.
Statistics
Top three stories by number of articles, reach and interactions
Top 10 websites by number of articles and top 10 Facebook pages/groups by number of posts (articles)
The top 10 websites (9,3% of the total number of websites) published 38,1% of the total number of articles (245 out of 643).
The top 11 Facebook pages/groups (3,6% of the total number of Facebook pages/groups) posted 23,4% [368 out of 1.572 posts (articles)].
