"RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS" - STRATCOM REPORT

The report „Risks and vulnerabilities of the Western Balkans “ is based on a one-year study conducted by the Global Focus Center – “Propaganda by Measure: Dimensions of Risk and Capacity in the Western Balkans”. The study identifies weaknesses that can be exploited by certain players who are hostile and who, in turn, can then impose their influence on the region.

The report focuses primarily on the weaknesses that Russia is demonstrating its willingness to use in order to activate its ability to intervene in the region. The Kremlin’s methods are seen in the narratives they use, imposing themselves as “Protectors of Slavism and traditional values ​​and the simultaneous framing of the aggressive West as a counterbalance to their theses.” These are policies that Moscow has already demonstrated in order to impose its inferiority in the region, the report said.

“Whether this engagement is only opportunistic or part of a well-prepared strategy must be carefully researched,” the report said. Detailed analysis often notes that many of the problematic situations in the Western Balkans coincide with Russia’s favorite tactics of attack.

The report concludes that:

• Attempts to promote the rule of law and freedom of expression in the Western Balkans have generally resulted in poor outcomes, and the rate of corruption and crime remains high;

• Economies in these countries remain dependent on foreign investment, while the civil society becomes an easy target for various information narratives, especially when there is a lack of trust between the government and the public in the current climate.

All of these factors contribute to the creation of an environment that is vulnerable to external enemy influence.

As a result, much of the subversive activity in the Western Balkans aims to undermine the West’s agenda for the region. Focusing on this theoretical framework, it appears that certain characteristics of the Western Balkans, such as high economic dependence on non-Western powers, strategic alignment with political agendas that do not share Euro-Atlantic values, and limited interaction with the West, contribute to vulnerability. However, these characteristics stem from the free use of state sovereignty.

The permeability/vulnerability index – on a scale from 0 (zero) to 3 (three)

The bandwidth index as an indicator measures a country’s vulnerability, i.e. weaknesses and vulnerabilities, which can be exploited by certain players who are hostile, and in that case, can impose their influence on the target audience. In this regard, the measurement of this indicator can contribute to significant knowledge that can be used to create a successful and specific strategy, aimed at intercepting hostile influence, which creates an atmosphere of confrontation in the country.

When the result of a country’s permeability index in a given domain is less than 1.5, it indicates that that vulnerability has not been easily exploited by enemy players. Countries with a score above 2 should take countermeasures immediately. A score of 2.25 indicates systemic weakness, which is a major concern.

The Vulnerability Index in North Macedonia achieved the lowest level in terms of the total permeability index, as can be seen from the attached chart. Some vulnerabilities that are worrying have been identified. They are a concentration of power and weak institutions, complemented by low public confidence and political favoritism.

 The permeability/vulnerability index of the society

In terms of the Society’s Transparency Index, North Macedonia has a relatively low score of 1.4, which has a slightly different interpretation. The research was conducted in the context of the then political developments, especially the signing of the Prespa Agreement, which affected the unlocking of the integration of North Macedonia into NATO, as well as the decision to open the door to negotiations with the EU. Although not on the same level as Albania, North Macedonia enjoys internal cohesion that comes from the country’s western orientation, which contributes to the society’s greater elasticity/resilience to anti-Western agendas and narratives. However, corrupt media still provide channels for such narratives. Areas of great concern (above 2.25 for the permeability/vulnerability index) include:

• political favoritism

• social inequality

• low trust in public institutions

Index of economic permeability/vulnerability

In most respects, North Macedonia has a low average of 1.5, which contributes to the aggregate result of the Economic Permeability Index of 1.41. However, macroeconomic policies are proving ineffective, and the media business model is unsustainable. This leads to corrupt media and biased reporting. The lack of competitiveness and transparency affects the creation of a gap in North Macedonia. Political favoritism, cartelization, and political cronyism contribute to the concentration of wealth in certain strategic sectors. An index of 2.25, which can be seen in the chart, indicates the use of political favoritism in order to accumulate wealth, which causes great concern.

Index of political permeability

The indicator of North Macedonia in this domain is relatively low (1.79). However, problems need to be addressed in a timely manner, including the captive state, the rule of law and nationalism. All of these factors affect the eroding of the political system and the creation of an environment that is subject to hostile influence. In general, the country enjoys relatively satisfactory political representation, although weaknesses in public administration remain. It is believed that policymaking is based on group and individual interests and ideology, and civil servants are not perceived as independent. The power of political parties is concentrated in the hands of one person or a small group of people. The independence of democratic institutions is the biggest challenge in general. The legal system seems to be dependent on external factors, more than the rule of law. The areas of high concern (permeability/vulnerability index above 2.25) are:

• the concentration of power in political parties

• judicial system trapped by political or business interests

Foreign policy and security permeability/vulnerability index

In this domain, the indicator of North Macedonia is 1.42, which is not a significant weakness. Overall, the country has a strong Euro-Atlantic orientation, is preparing to join NATO and is investing political effort in unblocking its path to EU accession. However, national elasticity /resilience is not fully developed, and weaknesses indicate the presence of hybrid threats along with underdeveloped social resilience. Despite the full low vulnerability, the North Macedonia’s foreign policy and security agenda should prioritize building elasticity and developing a long-term strategy. Areas of great concern (Ability Index above 2.25) are:

• The country’s resilience to hybrid attacks is particularly underdeveloped compared to the threat

• Significant representatives of national security institutions are subject to political influence or cronyism

• Significant damage to infrastructure in the event of a military attack

Conclusions:

• Attempts to promote the rule of law and media freedom in the Western Balkans have generally resulted in poor results, and the rate of corruption and crime remains high.;

• Economies in these countries remain dependent on foreign investment, while civil society becomes an easy target for various information narratives, especially when there is a lack of trust between the government and the public in the current climate.

All of these factors contribute to the creation of an environment that is vulnerable to external enemy influence. As a result, much of the subversive activity in the Western Balkans aims to undermine the West’s agenda for the region. Focusing on this theoretical framework, it appears that certain features of the Western Balkans, such as high economic dependence on non-Western powers, strategic alignment with non-Euro-Atlantic political agendas, and limited Western interaction, contribute to vulnerability. However, these characteristics stem from the free use of state sovereignty.

Recommendations:

In order to eliminate the threats and mitigate the effects of their potential, certain recommendations have been prepared:

• There is no universal solution to comply with every country. Each country must understand its vulnerability, identify institutional shortcomings, and create an adjoining strategy to counter it, to eliminate extreme weaknesses.

• Opposing hostile influence. Countries need to adopt an approach that will guide the whole society to think strategically. In the short term, countermeasures will be a step towards a targeted response that will help prevent hostile activities. In the long run, long-term elasticity measures need to be taken.

• Investing in civil society and its strengthening, civic education, critical thinking and media literacy – all this is the basis for building resilience, especially in an environment that is exposed to many networks.

• Cooperation, sharing best practices and lessons learned are essential to success. Each country has its own specific environment, and the Western Balkans share many common challenges and threats. Each country can benefit from the experience of others. The national governments of these countries should be able to provide access to the expertise of the EU and/or NATO member states in preparing their resilience and response strategies, as well as in building institutions and advancing their expertise in research and management with the phenomenon.

The recommendations are not limited to the governments of the Western Balkan countries. The international community, including the EU and NATO, needs to be involved in creating a comprehensive strategy to strengthen the region’s resilience to hostile influence. The processes will deliver the best results for both parties, only if real efforts are applied in order to face these challenges together.

Source: Stratcomcoe.org