THE RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE NORTH MACEDONIA’S MEMBERSHIP IN NATO

The expectations that by the end of this year the Republic of North Macedonia will become the 30th member of NATO are realistic. The ratification of the Accession Protocol is going on with the expected dynamic (for some analysts and politicians even faster than usual), so the claims that this is only a formal procedure that should be completed in accordance with internal legal procedure of the member-states are justified. North Macedonia cannot influence the process anymore, i.e. the country, both as a society and state apparatus completed all necessary reforms, resolved all open issues and it is ready for the full-fledged membership in NATO.

In the recent period it was interesting to follow the behavior of all NATO members, the behavior of the countries from the region that are not NATO members, but probably it was most important to follow the behavior of the Russian Federation, which is an extremely important international factor, which shows serious aspirations for political and economic strategic influence in the region. This is also because of the fresh memories about the Russian influence on the process of Montenegro’s accession in NATO, for which activities the court in Podgorica recently sentenced two Russian military security agents in absentia for the assassination attempt on the Montenegrin President, Milo Gjukanovikj.

However, the Republic of North Macedonia and Russia did not have some significant historical or contemporary common goals or interests in the 20th century, nor is this true for the first two decades of the 21st century. This equally pertains to all spheres of the society. There are no significant relations on political, economic, cultural, sport or any other field. Even at the times of the former SFRY there was no special relation between the two countries, which cannot be said about Slovenia, Montenegro, and especially for Serbia, countries with which Russia has been developing – both in the past and now – close cooperation in various fields.

Actually, it is enough to remember that the first meeting between President Putin and the U.S. President George Bush Jr. happened in Brdo at Kranj. Russian politics has always had a deep respect for the Slovene national sovereignty and developed close relations, unlike the relations with Croatia, which by Russia itself are considered as relations with a peripheral EU-member. On the other hand, the relations between Russia and Serbia are sensitive in several aspects, and often they are not in the context of the official state policy. Namely, Russia has strong influence in Serbia, primarily through the Church, “the undefined” intellectual circles, as well as through the people who strongly believes that Russia is the most brotherly and most friendly country. This is not in line with the official policy of Belgrade, which chose the European road and Europe as strategic partner long time ago, and currently it is in the negotiation process for EU membership. Russia uses persons from the political leadership of Serbia, who, displaying false cordiality, sit on two chairs in the international relations with EU and Russia. The reality is that the Russian economic interests in Serbia are of a secondary importance and have never contributed significantly for the economic development of the latter. In Bosnia and Hercegovina, the relationship Purin – Dodik is significant, but the central authority is in Sarajevo, which is under strong control from USA. In Montenegro, Russian influence was very significant, especially in the economy, where a number of Russian tycoons bought important resorts and complexes in the on the seaside, but also in the interior part of the country. Russia strongly opposed the membership of Montenegro in NATO, stating that the country is pushed into the Aliance without the consent of the people. Of course, this did not stop the authorities to persevere on the road to full-fledged membership.

Taking into consideration the experience of the neighboring countries, it is enough to state that after the demise of Gruevski and Ivanov, the Russian influence has been reduced to its minimum, and it can be assessed as insignificant for our accession in NATO. After all, Russia acknowledged the Prespa Agreement, and by that, the new official name of the country, a fact that has been repeated several times by Minister Lavrov and Ambassador Bazdnikin. Russia remains committed to the democratic development of North Macedonia, carefully following the process gaining full-fledged membership in NATO, and it will also remain our economic and trade partner in the future.

As for the military part, there is no room for concern that the interests of Russia will undermine our Euro-Atlantic integration. There is no cooperation between the armies of the two countries, nor between their respective ministries, neither in training, nor in weapons supply, or in supply of other material-technical equipment.

Two big military exercises are being currently conducted in the region – “Decisive Strike 2019” in North Macedonia, participated by more than 2,700 troops from North Macedonia, USA, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania and Lithuania, as well as “Slovene Brotherhood 2019” in Serbia, participated by more than 750 troops from Serbia, Russia and Belarus. These are two entirely separate exercise, planned well ahead, and one should not read much political context in them. Such activities of the armies in the region were conducted before, and due to the nature of things, the threats and the challenges, they will also be conducted in the future. This should not and cannot threaten the strategic goals of any country from the region. 

Things are more than clear in the political field. The official policy of Kremlin is not opposed to the interests of Skopje for full-fledged membership in NATO and EU. There are certain groups on our political scene that declare that they have support from Moscow, and who advocate termination of both country’s accession in NATO and the EU integration, and turning instead to the East and Russia. However, these political parties or groups enjoy minimal support in North Macedonia, while there are no credible evidence that they are really supported from Moscow. In plain words, it is the case of political outsiders who cannot establish themselves with serious ideas for development of the Macedonian society and therefore they will remain outside the real political developments in the country.

As for the economic exchange between the two countries, it can be said that it exists and it is conducted mainly within the planned framework without having significant influence on the GDP. The EU-members remain our biggest international trade partners, together with the countries from the region, with which we realize much higher numbers in the economy, than with the Russian Federation.

At the end, in the present context we can assess the relations between the two countries as good and within international law, without open issues and serious challenges. In the recent period we have managed to balance and overcome even the smallest misunderstandings, which on the other hand relaxed the political and economic relations between the countries and leaves room for future partnership building, even after the Republic of North Macedonia will become the 30th member of NATO and will start the negotiations for EU membership.

Prof. Dr. Nikola Dujovski